Orange Crush: Re-Thinking Democracy in the Ukraine

 On Feb. 24, the coalition led by Yulia Tymoshenko representing the once vibrant 'Orange Revolution' in the Ukraine was crushed with the election of pro-Moscow Prime Minister Victor F. Yanukovich. Although the results have been confirmed by international observers, Western governments have greeted the decision with concern. 

As the EU flag was lowered from Kiev's European Square for the first time in five years, the new Prime Minister declared his intentions to make Ukraine a "bridge between East and West." Yesterday, Yanukovich made his first foreign trip to Brussels to meet with representatives from the EU but the move has been seen as a ploy by Western critics. Immediately following his meetings in Brussels, Yanukovich will visit Moscow to establish a new working arrangement with the Kremlin. 

In 2005, the Ukraine experienced a massive political upheaval spurred by the campaign of pro-Western candidate Victor Yushchenko. Massive campaign fraud orchestrated by the Kremlin was overturned by popular protest, leading Western pundits to christen an "Orange Revolution" in the country. 

The Bush Administration viewed the outcome with glee, promoting the event as a key example of the new "wave of democratization" sweeping the world...no doubt a political response to the messy reality of 2005 Iraq. As the United States continued an aggressive policy towards Russia, including the pursuit of a nuclear defense shield in Eastern Europe, the Bush Administration increased aid to the Ukraine and pushed for closer cooperation (and eventual membership) with NATO. Cooperation will continue under Yanukovich's rule, as the Ukraine views NATO as a welcome pivot against the Russian gas disputes that have paralyzed the country at the whim of the Kremlin. 

During the rule of the Orange Coalition, Russia practiced a cutthroat brand of oil diplomacy, threatening to cut off the country's oil and gas supply whenever the Ukraine attempted to pursue anti-Kremlin policies. The majority of Europe's energy supplies come through pipelines located in Eastern Europe, and Moscow did not hesitate to also threaten Europe with an energy freeze for over-engagement with the Orange Coalition. 

The EU has included the Ukraine in its latest round of enlargement talks. Negotiations are currently underway to include the country in a new free trade area and preliminary, low-level talks over political integration. Although the current economic crisis in the EU has down-graded the possibility of accelerating the membership process, the Ukraine is clearly on Brussel's radar and, despite media claims to the contrary, Yanukovich is visiting with the EU now to reaffirm his claim that he is "not the stooge of Moscow." 

Despite early criticism of the results, the election in the Ukraine is historic. The election process that brought Yanukovich into power was highly competitive, unpredictable, and fair. In this sense, the Ukraine demonstrated its potential as a flowering democracy. Although the results at this time tend to seem favorable to the Kremlin, it is important to note that the election in the Ukraine did not follow the Moscow line. Perhaps instead, we should view the election as another example of democratic transition in a burgeoning multipolar world. Instead of being a display of pro-East or pro-West sympathies the governing coalition of the Ukraine is displaying a savvy pragmatism, attempting to empower their country by serving as a wedge between East and West. Given the amount of negative attention heaped on the country by critics from both sides, it seems like a smart way to go.