Share the Wealth
Recently, the National Finance Commission of Pakistan hashed out a revenue sharing agreement that gives bigger cuts to its federal provinces. This is seen as a landmark deal for a country that is rife with internal divisions.
Pakistan's provinces (excluding the dominant Punjab province, which agreed to share its revenues) have shared an adversarial relationship with the federal government. Widespread corruption has brought energy and infrastructure development projects to a standstill (see: Gwadar), the federal army and intelligence agencies have swarmed the provinces and conducted disruptive counter-terrorist and counter-insurgency operations that have loosed thousands of refugees across the countryside (see: Swat Valley), and the national economy has withered from the global financial crisis.
This is a recipe for disaster because it reflects a pattern that has been seen before. While interstate warfare has been largely missing from the post-Cold War world, former colonial states in the developing world continue to face the risk of collapse.
Pakistan is a country cobbled together by colonial interests. There is no 'nation' which defines it, with each of the provinces referencing a unique and contentious past with the federal state. Without a clear sense of national unity the country has fallen pray to divisive interests; religious extremism, ethnic violence, and endemic corruption that saps the country's ability to deliver basic services and create jobs. The country is governed by a well-educated, largely pro-Western class of affluent technocrats, but they are disconnected from the massive poverty and social divisions that continue to weaken their state.
A brief survey of recent conflict hot-spots should draw important similarities:
the Caucasus, where weak Russian control of the region and incoherent development policies have fueled a growing separatist movement defined by jihad.
the former Yugoslavia, where IMF debt re-scheduling prompted the federal government to suspend revenue sharing with its provinces, resulting in federal dissolution ("Balkanization") and the Yugoslav Wars (including Bosnia & Kosovo) which continue to demand UN and US peacekeeping efforts to prevent ethnic violence.
Peru, where government failure to deliver services to the highland interior encouraged the Shining Path to lead a bloody insurgency and, after a decade of quiet, has led to the resurgence of the Maoist organization.
Colombia, where government failure to deliver services to the highland interior has supported a decades-long war between FARC (a Marxist organization) and other narco interests.
Yemen, where weak government control and incoherent development policies have fueled a growing separatist movement defined by jihad that is now spilling over into Saudi Arabia and gaining increased attention from U.S. policymakers.
Iraq, where an insurgency defined by ethnic and sectarian violence has claimed over 4,000 U.S. casualties.
Afghanistan, where government failure to deliver jobs and services has fueled an insurgencydefined by jihad that has claimed almost 1,000 U.S. casualties.
Sri Lanka, where government failure to address ethnic and religious divides has driven a decades-long campaign of intrastate war orchestrated by the Tamil Tigers.
the Congo War, with sub-conflicts still simmering, where ethnic violence fuels interstate and intrastate warfare, leading to state collapse and a massive but ineffective UN peacekeeping effort.
The wars of the early 21st century have been fought to promote global security by stabilizing and re-building failed states. These failed states are colonial creations and their internal problems are a reflection of lingering social divisions created from a colonial past. It is ironic that now the Global North pumps hundreds of billions of dollars into the states that they created (in their own image) to prevent them from collapsing into warfare that threatens their own prosperity (built upon the backs of conquered nations that have been transformed into 'modern' states).
The territory of Pakistan was never a state and did not consist of a unified nation of people until the British declared the Partition of India. Similarly, Afghanistan did not exist separately from what is now Pakistan until the British drew the Durand Line (which is not recognized by the Pashtun of either country).
Since partition, the state of Pakistan has been dominated by elite interests that have ignored the provinces and allowed separatist movements to grow. And since partition, Pakistan has been at constant near-war with India, with both states procuring nuclear weapons in an effort to deter the other from attacking. Not surprisingly, Pakistan focused its conventional military power against India rather than its own provinces. And since partition, Pakistan has sought to control Afghanistan as a puppet state, hoping it would serve as a buffer zone between India.
None of these issues concerned Northern leaders until the attacks of September 11th, 2001. Now local issues are global issues. Now the stability of Pakistan is a major concern for promoting global security.
To their credit, the U.S. foreign policy community has realized the severity of the situation. The Enhanced Partnership with Pakistan Act of 2009 was pushed through Congress with strong bi-partisan support led by Senators John Kerry and Richard Lugar.
And Pakistan is slowly responding. Although the government of Pakistan seems keen on harassing U.S. diplomats, the state of Pakistan has re-deployed its military (with heavy U.S. funding, of course) to conduct conventional warfighting operations in its lawless provinces and is slowly finding success at pushing militants towards U.S. special forces wolf packs waiting at the Afghan border. The ISI has been cooperating much closer with the CIA to help direct penetrating Predator drone strikes against high-level Al Qaeda operatives.
But most importantly, the government of Pakistan is reforming its revenue sharing operations so that it can stimulate development projects and create jobs in the provinces in an attempt to forge a new national unity.
Creating wealth within the provinces will go much further towards stabilizing the country and silencing extremism than any amount of bombs will. Countries like Rwanda, Panama, and Botswana have proven that post-colonial, developing countries can escape historical cycles of violence and poverty and build democratic societies that transcend internal divisions. The elites in Pakistan want to build a strong, stable democracy that cultivates rule of law and builds a strong domestic economy. They will have to continue addressing colonial divisions if they want to realize that dream.
